On Venezuelan War & Peace

Reflection, politics and confessions.

Reflection

In War & Peace, we study significant conflicts of the past to better understand the present with the hopes of informing current decision-making at best or having a fascinating discussion while learning history at worst. This is a class where you can quote Guns of August and Prisoners of Geography at nauseam and in equal proportions. I love it.

We began — appropriately — with definitions of strategy, war, leadership, and peace.

My energetic RC Strategy professor will be proud to know that, when the question was posed to the class, I recited its definition not from memory, but from the heart after absorbing it throughout RC year and at the beginning of EC year: “Strategy is a set of integrated choices that positions a company in its environment in order to generate and capture value over the long term.” After all, a lot of what we do here at HBS is understand whether the most basic business resources — capital and people — are coherently organized in accordance with an ideally-stated strategy.

The subject of war has been studied extensively. I will save you from some great readings and frameworks to get to the punchline and analysis. A commonly-accepted definition of war is a “large-scale, organized violence between political units.” According to that definition, there is little doubt around what is happening to my beloved country. Venezuela is and has been suffering the consequences of a devastating war, evidenced by the number of casualties (i.e., Caracas was named one of the deadliest cities on earth just a few years ago) and the political, economic, and social crises that have marked the country over the past few decades. As a direct consequence of this war, there is little to no foreign capital investment, a massive exodus of people (roughly eight million displaced in a country with a total population of around 31 million, which is only comparable to those in Syria and Ukraine), and a sharp decline in productivity rates — all of which are key ingredients to the recipe of progress. Unsurprisingly, Venezuela’s GDP has plummeted an astonishing 75% from its 2012 peak, suffering from the devastating power of hyperinflation (reaching 65,000% in 2018 and projected to reach 250% to 500% this year) and economic contraction. The magnitude of the collapse is even more tragic when you consider the fact that Venezuela was historically the richest country in Latin America, has the biggest proven oil reserves in the world, and experienced a historic windfall to state coffers due to historical high oil prices.

This leads us to the topic of leadership, which I described as the ability to inspire, mobilize, and effect change. My rationale is that you must be able to execute, as you will be judged by your actions and not your thoughts here. The more robust definition among my classmates defined leadership as “the challenge of mobilizing and motivating the actions and decisions of others; championing the alignment and definition of mission, strategy, and execution; making the call on ‘impossible’ choices and tradeoffs; and exhibiting moral courage.”

Politics

The Venezuelan regime, once again measured by the most basic, generally accepted metrics of success (i.e., GDP growth, poverty rates, literacy rates, and overall opportunities for your population) reveals utter failure across all domains. A recent study — the Global Innovation Index (GII) 2025 from the World Intellectual Property Organization — places the regime dead last (ranking 139 out of 139) on operational stability for businesses, regulatory quality, and rule of law. In overall government effectiveness, it ranks 138.

 A deeper analysis reveals something darker, which is that the tradeoffs benefitted a few corrupt people at the expense of millions. At this point, I feel it is important to remind our friends from around the world that this was all done under the premise of a new socialist revolution — “the 21st century socialist revolution.” It was supposed to benefit those who were “forgotten” by prior democratic governments. This was not a new story, of course, but the agent — a charismatic military figure camouflaging as civilian — through which it was delivered was. The timing and messaging that was used — seeding conflict and separating Venezuelan society across economic classes — were all too persuasive. Some correctly diagnosed the problem in its infancy, while others took advantage of it. And that is how such a rich nation with enormous potential fell into this trap of misery.

Even darker is the fact that they have cut by brute force (emphasis on “brute,” with over 800 political prisoners today) the only mechanism (i.e., voting) available to the people of our country to change this dark reality, one that we have long fought to change. Evidence suggests that more than 70% voted for a different government, not the one in power at the moment.

The ability to choose different leadership with different ideas is a fundamental right of democracy — one lost long ago amid rising oil prices and ever-increasing debt.

And that brings us to peace, which “exists when the idea of resorting to war to achieve political objectives becomes unimaginable or completely delegitimized.” This is, of course, just the opposite of what is currently happening in Venezuela, where only those in power and against the will of the people will declare war on its own citizens, so long as they can perpetuate themselves in power.

Under this dark context, a compelling narrative started to emerge as well, and it was recently crystalized by the will of the people. On July 28, 2024, Venezuelans elected Edmundo Gonzalez to the presidency, technically removing those in power peacefully and democratically — a huge feat considering the ruthless adversary and the 27 years it has taken (TWENTY-SEVEN YEARS!). I think I have finally diagnosed where my sense of urgency in life comes from!

The effort that it took to get to today, and the amount of people that have and are currently suffering to get us closer to the finish line are doing a monumental job and won’t be forgotten. All of us should be asking what else we could be doing.

When discussing moral courage, we ought to pause and admire the magnitude of what Maria Corina Machado — an exemplary Venezuelan businesswoman and politician, mother of three, industrial engineer, and leader of the democratically-elected government — has achieved. It is no surprise then that she received the Nobel Peace Prize this year. For once, good news has begotten more good news. On October 19, Pope Leo XIV canonized the first two Venezuelan saints into the Catholic Church. A blessing for the entire country!

But where do we go from here? I must admit that my perspective has changed with time and out of desperation. It has changed with the passing of my father. It has changed with only being able to see my mother and brother once or twice a year. It changed when my brother was diagnosed with cancer. It has changed in so many ways, and yet the fundamentals remain the same. We want to be able to choose our own destiny, and we want to test better ideas. 27 years is enough evidence of a failed model.

Confessions

I was originally convinced that we needed to find all of them, put them in jail, and make them pay for the collective suffering of an entire nation and its lost opportunity. This was young and passionate. Through life, work, wins, and sorrows, I have become more nuanced. I can discuss whether a bad solution — led by the opposition leader — might be better than the prior state of affairs. I understand that everything I want is possible with time, and I understand that this might not be a popular opinion. I understand that there is more ignorance than malice. I understand that it is imperative for the will of the people to be heard.

As you can imagine, most of War & Peace revolves around dissecting a few key questions from multiple points of view, with listening as a key component. A benefit of the EC year is that grades matter less and the individuals you frequent in class self-select. Classmates seem more willing to express their raw views — though still in a very professional and respectful manner — with the occasional passionate speech and extra clapping.

What about the future? We must arrive at a point where the regime is more incentivized to cede or vacate power than to keep resisting. Call it an offramp, a negotiation, or extreme pressure — all should be methods contemplated at this stage of the game by which we get there. All in great coordination with regional and global powers. All with the will of the Venezuelan people and under constitutional protections as we consider the grave implications and the millions of civilian lives that are at stake and clamoring to get back to a democratic path.

Paradoxically and from my limited sample size, I see a young generation in and out of the country that has learned the lesson the hard way and that now cares less about damaging the other side and finding the culprits and more about building an ecosystem in which this never happens again. I think about the lessons learned from this dark chapter and how best to incorporate them in the future. An ecosystem in which the better ideas are tested and rewarded — one where there are mechanisms to provide feedback and disagree constructively, where there is rule of law (including bankruptcy law) and separation of powers, where there can be a free flow and celebration of ideas, where basic needs are protected first for the entire population, where publicly-funded infrastructure and services are better than their private counterparties (yes, in agreement with Bukele’s view that the government should play a role, I believe it should be limited in its steady-state and should excel in the service it provides, which shouldn’t be controversial). I’m convinced most Venezuelans want this and would benefit from it.

At last, we end. I don’t know if I decided to write these thoughts because I wanted to share a little bit about a great class, complement the RC BGIE case on Venezuela, or simply memorialize these ideas.

At this critical juncture, and while I finish my studies, I pray that I’m prepared to contribute effectively and welcome all the help in doing so.

The writer of the article has requested to remain anonymous.