Brexit - A Geopolitical Perspective

If Britain’s relevance dictates that Britain retains its seat at the table, then let us consider a Brexit scenario. The world has changed since European unification began - in a world dictated by large trading blocs, international bodies and political allegiances, where would a newly independent UK sit? Interestingly, the UK has long been valuable as the lynchpin of NATO - tying North America closely to Europe. By willingly abdicating its position in the EU, the UK risks not only losing political influence with key European allies, but also risks alienating Europe. If we establish that the UK no longer has the might to remain America’s political wingman nor has the political sway in Europe, then how can the nation remain the NATO lynchpin? More importantly, what value do they provide the US and will the special relationship survive? Departing the EU could accelerate the diminution of Britain’s world stature and as the Brexit domino falls, it could start a chain of events forever pivoting Britain’s path. One specific chain worthy of note is the issue of Scottish Independence. In the 2014 Scottish Referendum, the nationalists lost out on independence from the UK by only a 5% swing vote. Since then, there has been an enormous wave of nationalism, and the Scottish National Party led by Nicola Sturgeon won 56 of 59 seats (up from six) in the 2015 General Election. The Scottish (as higher beneficiaries of the EU) are widely seen to be more supportive of the EU. Mrs. Sturgeon has reiterated that if the Scottish vote to remain in the EU, but the UK gains a Brexit majority, this would count as a “material change of circumstance” with Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the UK, warranting a new Scottish independence vote. Second time round, Scotland will surely leave. Needless to say, breaking the 1707 Articles of Union (founding of the UK) will have long and material impacts on the remaining UK’s economy, military and nuclear deterrent – further ghosting Britain into the shadows. Those voting to schism may get more than they bargained for. Will the world look back and see June 23rd as the day Britain released itself from the bureaucratic shackles of the EU and regained control of its borders or will they simply see the beginning of the end for “Great” Britain. Peter (HBS ‘17) is an RC and a proud member of Section A (woo Pandas!). In his capacity as a social chair for the section, he spends a lot of time organizing large scale (and often intricate) social events. Outside this role, he is also a Co-President of the HBS Europe Club and a British Friends of HBS Fulbright Scholar. Prior to HBS, Peter worked in London at Merrill Lynch and then Bain Capital, and will be returning to the latter post MBA. Ever since his undergraduate days at Oxford, Peter his been fervently interested in international politics.